As part of the London Plan review the Mayor said that brownfield land alone will not meet the city’s escalating housing needs. In a bold but unsurprising move, he announced plans to ‘actively explore’ a London-wide review of the green belt to inform the next London Plan. An assessment of Metropolitan Open Land (MOL) (protected open space within London) may also be on the table.
The overall space that Londoners live, work and play in has not altered for years - London’s green belt has remained largely the same for decades. Meanwhile, its population has increased by over 1.63 million over the last twenty years alone, an average uplift of 81,380 people per annum. Those boroughs reporting the largest increase include Tower Hamlets (+114,200), Newham (+107,145), Brent (76,352) and Hounslow (+75,840). Over the same period, an average of 36,000 new homes have been built each year in London, which is less than half the rate that London needs to build over the next decade according to the Government (88,000 new homes p.a).
With housing delivery not keeping pace with need, the population in London has adapted by forming larger households; residents continue to share with parents or live in multi-occupancy homes resulting in supressed household formation. According to the 2021 Census, the average household size in London increased 8.1% since 2001, from 2.38 to 2.57, whilst it remained similar (2.4) across England as a whole. London has the highest rates of overcrowding by quite some margin with 11.1% compared to 4.4% nationally. In fact, all other regions in England have a rate below 4.3%. Overcrowding can lead to poor quality living conditions, inequalities and poor health and wellbeing. Coupled with the growing housing affordability crisis in the capital pushing residents further out, more radical action may be required.
The challenges around new housing to serve the expanding population in London is immense. Not just from a quantitative perspective, but also from the perspective of ensuring the delivery of quality, type, tenures and supporting infrastructure to meet genuine need. Equally, the arguments around how to increase delivery are complex, incredibly nuanced and almost always certain to provoke heated debate.
Some will argue that increasing densities, particularly around transport nodes and within Opportunity Areas is key and should be prioritised over green belt development. Others will argue that this is not viable or deliverable, hence a current backlog of unimplemented planning permissions, and that unlocking the availability of sites in the green belt is key. The truth is surely a combination of the two and the green belt review is likely being welcomed by many. The reality of either solution is not a quick fix however, and even with parts of the green belt unlocked, some local planning authorities may still strongly resist.
At GC Insight, we have sat on both sides of the table, considering the objective planning balance and helping make the case both for and against housing and commercial development in the green belt from a social value and economic perspective. Each time, our starting point is to consider an area’s socio-economic local and strategic priorities and challenges. Only then can we meaningfully understand and demonstrate the genuine contribution a development will make and whether it can be afforded significant weight in economic terms. In short, it’s not just about quantifying jobs, homes, Gross Value Added (GVA), or household expenditure impacts and the like. It’s about demonstrating how the development and its impacts will support inclusive, social and economic benefits for local communities and why it is needed.
We have supported our clients to understand and demonstrate the weight their development proposals can be afforded in economic terms on green belt and greenfield sites, including for a New Town, football stadium, data centre, 100% affordable housing schemes and logistics sites. We’ve successfully argued the economic case at EiP when needed. We are a social enterprise, and our priority is always to help our clients make a bigger positive impact, which we consider to be critical when considering green belt development.
If you would like to talk about your economic development ambitions and planning applications, contact Margaret Collins at margaret.collins@gcinsight.co.uk or Zoe Crampton at zoe.crampton@gcinsight.co.uk.
